Hurricane Forecasting Faux Pas

After all the harping about more hurricanes and bigger hurricanes caused, of course, by global warming, we find out that William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, the hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science, admit their previous 20 years of forecasting have been a dud and was basically a worthless endeavor. As you can see from the above screenshot of their PDF, the actual vs. the forecast hasn’t been very good at all. Their statement is below.

We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year and giving a more qualitative discussion of the factors which will determine next year’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed.

This is another good example of how computer modeling doesn’t work. Remember that next time you read someone’s wild prediction of massive sea-level rise, gigantic storms, droughts, floods and whatever else kind of BS you read about.  It’s only based on a computer model, AKA a glorified video game. Garbage in – garbage out.

Also remember that it appears hindcasting is 20/20. Forecasting? Not so good. You can read their whole paper at the above PDF link and judge for yourself.

Source: The Ottawa Citizen

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One response to “Hurricane Forecasting Faux Pas

  1. Ralph

    Now if only someone at the insurance companies would get the message that Florida isn’t a hurricane magnet so we could get decent home owners coverage.