It appears to us that predictions of the Antarctic and Arctic being ice-free are about as impressive as predicting dinosaurs are having a comeback and will reappear any decade now, but we just don’t know what one. Why do we say this?
From our take, it looks like the ice at both poles is indeed making a comeback, not receding. As you can see from this article at The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), the Antarctic ice is back and could even set a new record:
It is very likely 2013 will go down in the history books as having the 2nd highest Antarctic sea ice minimum of all time. In 2013 there was 1.4 million sq km more sea ice than there was in 1997 at minimum.
Top 6 Minimum Extents:
Year Day Minimum Extent 2008 51 3.69176 2013 50 3.6504 2003 48 3.6257 2001 50 3.44094 1995 55 3.32988 2004 51 3.25927
Lowest 6 Minimums:
Year Day Minimum_Extent 1997 58 2.26415 1993 50 2.28078 1984 58 2.38292 2006 51 2.4866 1992 54 2.49238 1980 57 2.52686
You can plainly see from the below chart that there’s plenty of ice this year. To reiterate, it could even be a new record.
So what about those dire Antarctic predictions? Well, here’s some links for you to read.
Antarctica: It’s Getting Hot at the Bottom of the Planet: Time evidently thinks there’s a heat-wave down there.
Polar ice sheets ‘are melting three times faster than they were just two decades ago‘: Uh huh, this one has both poles melting at accelerated rates.
Antarctic Ice Melt: This one has it losing-gaining. Must be like that global warming caused cooling and worse blizzards with less snow or something.
What about all those dire Arctic predictions telling us that by such and such a year you’ll be able to circumnavigate the North Pole in your kayak? Well, frankly, there’s so many predictions that someday, it may be one of them will get lucky, but only because it will be like the stopped clock that’s correct twice per day. It will be due to blind luck and not those garbage-in-preferred-result-out computer models.
As you can see by the below chart, there doesn’t appear to be a big problem in the Arctic either. So far it’s way ahead of 2007, the year that caused some warmers to hit the panic button.
Here’s a sampling for your review with links to the articles.
Ice Free Arctic Update – This one’s too funny. Why? Well, here we have “Top NASA experts predicted an ice-free Arctic for 2012.” Well, sorry guys, but 2012 is gone and that ice is not only still there, there’s a whole shitload of it.
Serreze : Ice Free Arctic In 2100 2070 2050 2030 – Looks to us like Serreze is like a guy who bets every spot on Roulette, knowing he’ll lose his ass, but at least he’ll win one spot.
By 2050 the Arctic ice sheet will be so thin that ships could be sailing across the North Pole, experts predict – We have to wonder if these are the same “experts” that predicted the Arctic being ice-free in 2012? Note they had to run 7 computer simulations to arrive at this conclusion. Must have taken a lot of time to come up with that garbage-in-the desired-result-out. After all that please note the use of the word “could” in the very first sentence.
There’s plenty more predictions out there but we don’t believe we have enough bandwidth to post them all.
We could book a summer vacation to the soon to be hot spot of Point Barrow, Alaska, or Western Antarctica, but it’s kind of hard to book in advance when you don’t know what
year, decade, century, not to mention if it’s ever going to happen.