Tag Archives: Sea-Level Rise

Maldives Not The Next Atlantis

Al Gore's Home in 20,000 Years?

Sorry to disappoint everyone but the Maldives aren’t sinking and won’t be underwater anytime soon, and shouldn’t get one damn penny of money under the guise of “we’re a poor little country suffering from anthropogenic global warming and all you big rich countries need to deposit money in our national treasury so we can get filthy rich, buy mansions, new Rolls Royce’s and have hookers 24 x 7 oops, I mean so we can fight this massive sea-level rise from global warming that will soon have my house under water.”

Here’s the reality of the situation in an open letter from Nils-Axel Mörner (a sea-level specialist) to the President of the Maldives, who’s been squawking like a baby buzzard waiting for its mommy to feed it some putrid dead rat meat.

Open Letter

October 20, 2009

To: President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives

From: Nils-Axel Mörner, Stockholm, Sweden

Mr. President,

You have recently held an undersea Cabinet meeting to raise awareness of the idea that global sea level is rising and hence threatens to drown the Maldives. This proposition is not founded in observational facts and true scientific judgments.

Therefore, I am most surprised at your action and must protest its intended message.

In 2001, when our research group found overwhelming evidence that sea level was by no means in a rising mode in the Maldives, but had remained quite stable for the last 30 years, I thought it would not be respectful to the fine people of the Maldives if I were to return home and present our results in international fora. Therefore, I announced this happy news during an interview for your local TV station. However, your predecessor as president censored and stopped the broadcast.

When you became president, I was hoping both for democracy and for dialogue. However, I have written to you twice without reply. Your people ought not to have to suffer a constant claim that there is no future for them on their own islands. This terrible message is deeply inappropriate, since it is founded not upon reality but upon an imported concept, which lacks scientific justification and is thus untenable. There is simply no rational basis for it.

Let me summarize a few facts.

(1) In the last 2000 years, sea level has oscillated with 5 peaks reaching 0.6 to 1.2 m above the present sea level.

(2) From 1790 to 1970 sea level was about 20 cm higher than today

(3) In the 1970s, sea level fell by about 20 cm to its present level

(4) Sea level has remained stable for the last 30 years, implying that there are no traces of any alarming on-going sea level rise.

(5) Therefore, we are able to free the Maldives (and the rest of low-lying coasts and island around the globe) from the condemnation of becoming flooded in the near future.

When I was president for the INQUA commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, we spent much effort on the question of present-to-future sea level changes. After intensive field studies, deliberation within the commission and discussions at five international meetings, we agreed on a “best estimate” for possible sea level changes by the year 2100. Our figure was +10 cm ±10 cm. This figure was later revised at +5 cm ±15cm (as given in Fig. 1). Such changes would imply small to negligible effects.

Such a small rise would pose no threat for the Maldives. Rather, it would be a natural return to the conditions existing from 1790 to 1970; i.e. to the position before the sea level fall in the 1970s.

So, Mr. President, when you ignore available observational facts, refuse a normal democratic dialogue, and continue to menace your people with the imaginary threat of a disastrous flooding already in progress, I think you are doing a serious mistake.

Let us, for Heaven’s sake, lift the terrible psychological burden that you and your predecessor have placed upon the shoulders of all people in the Maldives, who are now living with the imagined threat that flooding will soon drive them from their homes, a wholly false notion that is nothing but an armchair fiction artificially constructed by mere computer modeling constantly proven wrong by meticulous real-world observations.

Your cabinet meeting under the water is nothing but a misdirected gimmick or PR stunt. Al Gore is a master in such cheap techniques. But such misconduct is dishonest, unproductive and certainly most un-scientific.

Nils-Axel Mörner

Head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, Sweden (1991-2005); President of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003); Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project (2000 on); Chairman of the INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003).

Source: Financial Post

Sounds to me like they need to find a new schtick to get some of that money they’re so greedy for.

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Bangladesh BS!

Here we go again with another IPCC Report problem.  According to this article, scientist in Bangladesh say Banglabullshit to the IPCC Report that states that 17% of Bangladesh will be flooded by 2050 from a one meter (3 foot) rise in sea-level.  You can see what their expectations are per the chart.

DHAKA (AFP) – Scientists in Bangladesh posed a fresh challenge to the UN’s top climate change panel Thursday, saying its doomsday forecasts for the country in the body’s landmark 2007 report were overblown.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), already under fire for errors in the 2007 report, had said a one-metre (three-foot) rise in sea levels would flood 17 percent of Bangladesh and create 20 million refugees by 2050.

They accuse the IPCC of using this report to stir things up about global warming.  Notice the term “consensus” which is how they prefer to have their “science” “proven” vs. scientific reality.

The warning helped create a widespread consensus that the low-lying country was on the “front line” of climate change, but a new study argues the IPCC ignored the role sediment plays in countering sea level rises.

Sediment?  Hmmm…so what do they have to say about that?

But the IPCC’s prediction did not take into account the one billion tonnes of sediment carried by Himalayan rivers into Bangladesh every year, the study funded by the Asian Development Bank said.

“Sediments have been shaping Bangladesh’s coast for thousands of years,” said Maminul Haque Sarker, director of the Dhaka-based Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), who led research for the study.

Previous “studies on the effects of climate change in Bangladesh, including those quoted by the IPCC, did not consider the role of sediment in the growth and adjustment process of the country?s coast and rivers,” he told AFP.

Even if sea levels rise a maximum one metre in line with the IPCC’s 2007 predictions, the new study indicates most of Bangladesh’s coastline will remain intact, said Sarker.

Yes, I’d say a billion tons might just have some kind of effect on things there.

I lost count of how many mistakes are in IPCC4, suffice to say, it’s way too many and the more they find the more I have the impression this is not a scientific document, it’s more like a Science Fiction Novel designed to scare the hell out of everyone so we’ll all start paying carbon taxes to save the earth.

“Based on the findings of the study, it appears that most of Bangladesh?s coastline, notably the Meghnaestuary, which is one of the largest in the world, would rise at the same pace as the sea level growth,” he said.

“The study shows that the inundation and flooding pattern of Bangladesh will change due to the sea level rise, but it will be less than what has been predicted,” by the IPCC and others, he said.

Pachauri is still throwing his “one single error” out there hoping it will stick to the wall.  If there were only one error the IPCC, Pachauri and all their buddies wouldn’t be having all the problems they’re facing regarding all the “mistakes”,  lies, misstatements, altered data, missing data, “tricks”, etc., that seem to increase almost on a daily basis.

One guy even actually admits they didn’t take this into account, kudos to him.

Atiq Rahman, a Dhaka-based member of the panel, admitted to AFP that the panel’s research on Bangladesh had “not taken into account the role the sediment plays in shaping Bangladesh’s coast and estuaries.”

Do these guys ever take into consideration what the effects of their fantasies are?  I mean who would want to build anything in Bangladesh? Why would any big business want to spend capital building factories in Bangladesh if they believe IPCC 4 and figure it will be a waste of time and money because it will be underwater before they get a return on their investment?  Why would the country want to invest in much-needed infrastructure if it’s going submarine in 40 years?

This also nicely explains the “disappearing” island the warmers were touting as proof of global warming awhile back.  The reason it disappeared wasn’t due to rising sea-levels from global warming as the “alarmists” would like you to believe. It was an island made of sediment, that appeared from a buildup of sediment and disappeared due to sediment washing away.  A normal cycle of things in delta areas. 1 billion tons of sediment tends to do things like this.  For all anyone knows the island could build up again over a period of time and reappear. What will the “warmers” say about that?  Probably they’ll try to figure some way to blame that on global warming, too.

If you want to read about the sea-level rise BS, there is a nice article on Watts Up With That? you can read here.

Source: Yahoo News

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Gore and Hansen Wrong on Sea-Level Rise

Captain_Nemo_FSMCD1208This is a picture from a movie about Captain Nemo of 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea fame.  Well according to some real scientist, we won’t be needing to move into a submarine or build any underwater cities, which is what “alarmists” Al Gore and James Hansen would like you to believe will happen by the end of the century, caused, of course, by global warming and CO2.

According to Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, the sea could rise 20 feet.  Per James Hansen of GISS the sea will be rising more than 5 meters.  Here’s the quote from Hansen below…

As an example, let us say that ice sheet melting adds 1 centimetre to sea level for the decade 2005 to 2015, and that this doubles each decade until the West Antarctic ice sheet is largely depleted. This would yield a rise in sea level of more than 5 metres (16 feet) by 2095.

I picked up on this article from C3 today:  32 Ocean Scientists Trash The Gore and James Hansen Sea-Level Rise Predictions: The Myth Rejected. They link to a paper on CO2 Science. Per them…

The experts in seas/oceans estimate a potential 4.7 inch to 39 inch rise over 21st century – this is certainly a sea level rise range that humans can deal with, easily. And, most significantly, this is a range based on historical sea levels that actually occurred during past warmer periods. What does this tell us? The true experts are predicting a maximum sea level rise far below the non-expert opinions (propagandist myths) of fanatical warming activists, such as Gore and Hansen.

That is a far, far cry from 16 to 20 feet.  We’re talking less than 1/2 foot to a little over 3 feet.  Quite a difference form 15 to 20 feet or more!

To simplify what these scientist did, is they looked at past data from when the climate was similar and looked at what the actual sea-level rise then…

Turning to the IPCC — the most recent report of which predicts a global warming of somewhere between 1.1 and 6.3°C for the 21st century — the PALSEA group writes that “the last time that a global warming of comparable magnitude occurred was during the termination of the last glacial period,” which consisted of “a series of short, sharp steps on millennial to centennial timescales.” Hence, they looked at what is known about sea level change during the Bolling-Allerod and post-Younger Dryas/early Holocene periods, because they say “the magnitude and rate of warming during these periods are most closely analogous to the magnitude and rate of anthropogenic warming [that is predicted to occur] over the coming centuries;” and this comparison ruled out any type of exponentially increasing sea level response, pointing more towards an asymptotic response, where the sea level rise is high initially but gradually levels off.

Realistically, their study states it will take a lot longer than a century for any significant rise to occur.  Even the IPCC predicted only -0.01 to 0.17 m over the century.

Regardless which one you believe, either one easily proves that Gore and Hansen are full of alarmist bullshit designed to freak-out the average person so they’ll donate money to prevent it and move into caves with hot and cold running bats to save the earth.

Well, at least it’s one CO2 Insanity episode put to bed by a dose of reality.

Source: C3

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I'm Going Postal Over Coastal Compensation

esmt0126pacificaNow here’s a terrific idea fostered by CO2 Insanity.  People who built houses on the edge of a cliff near the coast need to be compensated when their houses fall off into the ocean according to this article in Telegraph.co.uk.

Over the next 20 years, 200 homes are likely to be made unsafe to live in due to coastal erosion and an additional 2,000 could become at risk, largely as a result of climate change.

It’s always caused by climate change nowadays, nothing else causes anything whatsoever. If you believe that I have the old bridge I’ll sell you .

Tim Yeo, Chairman of the EAC, said the compensation formula should be based on how long the owner has lived in the property so that it does not apply to people who were aware of the risk when they brought the house.

This sounds rather silly to me.  I mean, unless you bought a house that was 500 feet or so back from the edge of the cliff a moron would have had a clue it might be a problem in the future.  Coastal erosion has been going on for millions of years, it’s not like it’s a surprise is it?

He also suggested developers and local authorities that encourage homes to be built on flood plains or eroding coastlines should contribute to compensation.

Now that’s one part of this I don’t have a problem with.  It’s something you see year in and year out when there is enough rain and/or snow melt you get flooding.  Frankly they shouldn’t build houses where it’s going to flood anyway.  I think a better more cost-effective way to handle this would be to have people be made very aware that their new house might turn into a U-Boat or literally fall off a cliff and make it THEIR responsibility, not the governments (aka: taxpayers), whom the government must think have money trees in their backyards.

At the moment the country spends £600 million per anum on flood protection but he said this should increase to £1 billion by 2035.

Oh well, only billion here and a billion there, what the hell the taxpayers can’t take it with them anyway.

The insanity of this is that this goes on all over the world.  Is everyone going to be compensated? Where’s all this money going to come from to pay for it?

Morever, what about other planetary issues?  If I buy a house under a volcano and it erupts should I get money?  What about eartquakes?  I live in a earthquake area, I’m fully aware of it, should I be compensated if we have one and my house gets knocked off its foundation?  How about people who buy houses that get hit by hurricanes all the time?  Should everyone in New Orleans be compensated bccause they were dumb enough to buy a house in a city that is below sea-level and gets hit by hurricanes?  I think not.

The photo in the article is an example of what I’m talking about.  It’s an apartment in Pacifica, California.  We haven’t had any ocean rise of any significance since this was built, but as you can see this place is about to literally fall into the ocean.  It’s natural causes, not global warming. When this place was built the edge of the cliff was a lot farther back. What’s causing this is normal erosiom from wind, rain and tidal action.

I’d also like to know why this is an issue when the sea-level rise study has been retracted, meaning this isn’t going to be a problem for a long time, if ever.

Source: Telegraph.co.uk

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